by Ryan P. Burge, Eastern Illinois University

It’s been just over two weeks from election day, and the hot takes about what groups were the most important for Joe Biden’s victory have already filled up social media. I did a number of media appearances in the days after election day where I pointed to the switch in the votes of white Catholics being decisive for Joe Biden this time around. That was based on two things. My own analysis of tracking poll data from Data for Progress, but also some exit polling I had seen from AP’s Votecast.

But, I have to admit — the more I looked at exit polls, the muddier the picture became. What really began to shift my thinking is when Brian Schaeffner was kind enough to give us all a sneak peak of the 2020 CCES data concerning religion. And, in that data the white Catholic vote was right in line with their support of Trump four years earlier. However, there were some other shifts that quickly jumped out to me: the nones. …


Ryan Burge

Assistant Professor of Political Science at Eastern Illinois University. Pastor at ABCUSA. I study American politics and religion.

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